Ganesh Kendale
NEW DELHI: Election Commission on Tuesday took a jibe at exit polls – which have had a chequered history regarding the accuracy of their predictions, the case with recent Haryana polls being no different – saying that they are neither based on science nor make public disclosures regarding their methodology, but create a “distortion” by setting expectations with predictions of victory for a particular side three days before counting.
At a press conference here to announce assembly polls for Maharashtra and Jharkhand, chief election commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar said the electronic media putting out counting leads as early as 8.05-8.10 am was “nonsense”, pointing out that actual counting begins only by 8.30 am, with the first set of trends emerging around 9.10 am. “I wonder if the initial trends (at 8.05-8.10 am) were put out (by the news channels) only to justify the exit poll predictions,” he said.
Stating that a mismatch between expectations created by exit poll predictions and actual results can sometimes lead to serious issues, Kumar said that “the gap between expectation and achievement is nothing but frustration”.
Suggesting that it was time for reflection and introspection by those conducting and disseminating exit poll outcomes, particularly the electronic media, the CEC said even though the EC does not govern exit polls under the existing statutory regime, “there is a need to introspect and self-regulate in terms of the sample size and location surveyed, methodology, fixing responsibility in the event of survey findings not matching with actual results, and making public disclosures in the interest of transparency”.
He opined that the time had come for bodies like NBDSA (News Broadcasting & Digital Standards Authority), which govern exit polls, to do some self-regulation. “I am sure all those responsible will do self-correction,” he said.
Kumar said after setting the expectations of parties and the public regarding the result, when counting started at 8 am for J&K and Haryana, there were instances of news channels putting out leads as early as 8.05-8.10 am. “This is nonsense. Counting begins only by 8.30 am. I wonder if the initial trends (at 8.05-8.10 am) were put out only to justify the exit poll predictions. Eventually, the leads from the first round of counting emerged around 9.05-9.10 am, and EC uploaded these on its website by 9.30 am, followed by updates at 11.30 am, 1.30 am, and so on,” he said.
“The news correspondent on the spot may have got the leads earlier as EC must first get the result signed and also verified by the observer, leading to some delays in its being uploaded on the website. But still, the first set of trends are known only after 9.10 am or so,” Kumar underlined.
All the exit polls conducted in Haryana had predicted a comfortable win to a landslide for Congress. The leads shown by news channels echoed the predictions very early into the counting, sparking celebrations in the Congress camp. However, the picture started changing by 10 am, possibly as the first set of trends were uploaded on the EC website. By 10.30 am, BJP had surged ahead of Congress in terms of leads, prompting the latter to question the delay in posting of trends, and later, lodge complaints about the discrepancy in battery life of EVMs.
